What to do when the conclave comes

By Phil Lawler ( bio - articles - email ) | Mar 13, 2025

When the Pope—any Pope—goes into the hospital, the reaction around Rome is unseemly yet predictable. The rumor mill begins to churn overtime. False reports abound. And thoughts turn toward the conclave.

Journalists begin compiling their lists of the papabili—lists that may or may not be accurate. Cardinals who have avoided publicity suddenly become available for interviews, or issue major public statements, in what cynics might interpret as a form of campaigning. Catholics of varying description, who fancy themselves “players” in Vatican politics, look for excuses to visit Rome, hoping to be invited to the dinners at which prelates will discuss the papabili and their chances.

As of this writing, Pope Francis appears to have survived a serious medical crisis, (although his doctors are still advising caution). But his age and his medical condition suggest that the conclave cannot be too far in the future. As a service to our readers, here are a few tips on how to follow the action, whenever it occurs:

Follow the news—but with a skeptical attitude. The British bookmakers who set odds on the papal election are just trying to draw customers; they have no inside information. Most secular reporters are not much better off; they tend to see Church issues in exclusively political terms, and rarely look beyond a cardinal’s views on abortion. If you really want informed analysis, stick with seasoned Catholic commentators. Even then, be careful. Every commentator has his own preferences.

Be wary of the “experts.” The old adage is trite but true: “Those who tell don’t know; those who know don’t tell.” Dozens of people will be circling around Rome in the days before the conclave begins, claiming to have inside information and anxious for a few minutes in front of a TV camera. Most of them are only spreading rumors. Even if they are legitimate insiders, they may be posturing, or sending out trial balloons, in their own efforts to manipulate the general discussion. Bear in mind that any prominent cardinal must have, at least in the back of his mind, the thought that other cardinals are weighing his suitability. Also remember that sometimes all the “experts” are wrong. Very few commentators listed Cardinal Bergoglio among the leading papabili in 2013, even though he was reportedly the runner-up in the previous conclave’s final vote.

Don’t be surprised by politicking. When they gather in Rome, the cardinals will have one thing foremost in their minds: the papal election. Of course they will talk to each other about the needs of the Church. Outright campaigning is forbidden—to say nothing of campaign promises—but everyone involved in the process will be hoping to promote some goods and forestall some evils. Cardinals will, as they should, try to persuade others to see what they consider the most urgent needs of the universal Church, and before they are locked into the conclave, other Catholics (and non-Catholics) will try to persuade the cardinals themselves. If they speak about the qualities they want to see in the next Pontiff, canny listeners will be able to guess which prelates they have in mind. In 2005, if someone said that the Church needed a brilliant theologian who had experience in the Roman Curia and would continue the work of John Paul II, he didn’t have to mention the name Ratzinger.

Be patient. In the “conferences” that precede the conclave itself, cardinals will speak in general terms about the challenges facing the Church, and from the reports of those talks we gather some sense of a general trend. But during the conclave itself we will know nothing, apart from the “black smoke” signals that an inconclusive vote has been taken. The next conclave could be a long one; many of the cardinals do not know each other, and they may take some time to sort themselves out before their voting patterns are clear. The secular journalists who camp out in Rome during the conclave find the wait frustrating, especially if they are expected to furnish regular updates. There are no updates from the conclave. One simply waits for the white smoke. Even then it is wise to remain patient. A new Pontiff always brings a sense of excitement. Wait a few months, and see what he does.

After the conclave, be even more skeptical. Within a few weeks after a papal election, journalists in Rome will publish what they claim to be an inside account of the conclave’s proceedings, perhaps even with ballot-by-ballot vote counts. Treat those reports with extreme care. Remember that before they begin voting, the cardinals take a solemn oath not to divulge what is said and done in the conclave. A prelate who lightly violates that oath is not a reliable witness. Maybe he has an axe to grind, on an insatiable desire to curry favor with reporters, or an overpowering habit of gossip. We never know the motivations of the anonymous cardinals who leak the conclave’s secrets, but we know they are untrustworthy.