Countdown to 2000: Get Ready for Y2K
WASHINGTON, D.C. — On the same day that President Bill Clinton staged a press conference proudly standing next to a poster declaring that Social Security is Y2K-proof — that the system's computers won't crash as millions fear at midnight, Dec. 31st, 1999 — staff members at The Wanderer experienced their first Y2K glitch.
In preparing the year's first batch of subscription renewal forms, informing subscribers that their renewals would run to January, 2000, the computer instead printed out 1900.
This little problem was quickly remedied, but it served notice that a lot of unknowns are going to be surfacing as this computer-driven culture reaches the year 2000.
Some business and computer experts are forecasting dire scenarios: a paralyzed transportation system, with trucks, planes, and trains stalled; power outages as nuclear, coal, and hydroelectric plants shut down at the stroke of midnight; riots in city streets as urban dwellers realize that alarm and security systems have crashed; the collapse of the financial system as bank checking and savings records disappear and insurance and pension records get lost in broken mainframes that can't read 2000.
Y2K-associated problems may start months earlier. For example, some analysts predict that nuclear power plants that are not Y2K-compliant will have to be shut down months before the turn of the new year, causing power shortages, stoppages, and brownouts for millions of electricity users.
In the judgment of Washington business consultant Jean-Francois Orsini, founder of the St. Antoninus Institute for Catholic Education in Business, it's time for every Catholic businessman — and Catholic family, for that matter — to start developing some contingency plans in the event of a national computer shutdown.
"The computer problem of the year 2000 has a high probability to lead to a worldwide depression," Orsini said in a recent interview. "And yet we are not really preparing for it. The total cost of correcting the problem has been estimated at $1 trillion, yet there are terrible flaws in that preparation.
"Most of the work being done is limited to correcting computer software," he explained, "and that is good.
"The odds are pretty high, however, that it won't be enough. Businesses and public organizations need a plan to know what to do when — despite all their efforts — things don't turn out well.
"What businesses and families need is a contingency plan."
Orsini, a Third Order Dominican whose professional life is devoted to bringing Catholic social justice principles to business, was recently invited to write an article on this subject for Y2K News — "the world's leading biweekly magazine and information source for the Year 2000 computer problem" — which can be viewed on the St. Antoninus web page at http://www.ewtn.com/antonin/ y2kcp.htm.
Orsini says he is optimistic that new solutions will be developed for individuals and communities, and that some organizations which have done what it takes to keep the loyalty of their customers and personnel will emerge much stronger after the turn of the new year.
"Those corporations which prepared in advance to solve the Y2K problems at both the computer level and the personnel level," he says, "can plan right now to take over their competitors who will be running for the tall grass, when the dust will have settled.
"I am not a lone prophet with this message," he adds. "Another business expert, Harlan Smith [http://2000.jbaworld.com/harlan/smcp.htm], has defended before the U.S. government the concept of 'austere infrastructure,' The Harvard Business Review published an article with very much the same view entitled 'Connectivity and Control in the Year 2000 and Beyond' [July-August, 1998], and Business Week ran an article [Dec. 4th, 1998], 'Y2K Is Worse Than Anyone Thought,' explaining how even completed repairs — which only a minority of companies will have done in time —will still contain major problems."
Orsini, however, as a Catholic business consultant, is reaching out to other Catholic businesses to prepare them to navigate through the problems created by the "millennium bug."
Contingency Plans
As 1999 unfolds, Orsini predicts that business managers and individuals will adopt one of four stances: denial — that nothing serious will occur; fear — that nothing can be done but store up guns; anger — which paralyzes action; and coolheaded acceptance of the problem and methodical work to reach a solution.
Some organizations, he explains, are indeed developing a contingency plan, but with the wrong approach: They are simply retaining computer firms to develop plans that will keep their own computers running.
But if this strategy is their sole approach, they are ignoring the other component: the management side of the problem.
"Computer firms develop plans about computers.
"We need plans which involve all the aspects of the life of the organization, including what its sales and customers will be and what to do with its personnel.
"My great fear is that when organizations realize that they are really not prepared, they are going to give up, betting that the government will help them at a later date, and will close their doors. This will result in a lot of people wandering aimlessly in the streets, frightened, or scheming for ways to find their next meal and next drink of water — most likely by taking it from another person."
Orsini believes that the level of disruption will be very serious, similar to the level of disruption brought about by World War II, but it will be bearable. It will not 'be "the end of the world as we know it" he predicts, but it certainly will be the "end of business as usual."
In his consulting work, Orsini advises businesses to develop a "bare-bones plan" based on a "worst-case scenario."
Such a plan can be developed both faster and cheaper, and it is safer and more practical than adopting a moderate scenario which does not take into account the domino effect that failed computer systems will generate.
Employing the analogy of the Titanic, Orsini says that a "fallback system" would be the same as having another boat following in the wake of the Titanic in case of an emergency. A better system would be to ensure that there are an adequate number of lifeboats and life jackets, and that the passengers are properly trained so that they know how to use them.
The contingency plan for a worst-case scenario implies that the business will find itself in a totally new environment and must be prepared to produce, market, and service in a way radically different from that to which it is accustomed.
This might imply, for example, planning to situate employees in "non-mission critical" functions into "mission critical" and training them to work under unusual circumstances.
Not only does this mean that those at the top of the organizational charts have an obligation to be responsible for every facet of the operation, but they also have the moral responsibility to ensure that the bottom levels of the organization understand their roles in maintaining the business in changed circumstances.
"Every businessman should ensure that the company is going to adapt to the situation" Dr. Orsini notes, "and should take care of as best he can the needs of his employees and especially the local market and community. Businessmen should prepare for the possibility that they will be forced or led into new business fields or areas of activity where they've never been. "Pope Paul VI said that the end of the economy is to provide for the material needs of the people so they can take care of their educational and spiritual needs. If businesses adopt this perspective, and see that service is their first objective, and not profit, they'll profit from the Y2K problem in the long run," he says.
Preparing Families
Heads of families, Orsini adds, have an obligation to prepare also for a worst-case scenario.
This does not mean hoarding, per se, but families should prepare to stockpile a reasonable supply of food and water and means of heating.
"One of the things I fear is that many people will end up as refugees," Orsini stresses. "The government will broadcast that there are food and water supplies in certain locations, and people who are not prepared will end up leaving their homes for the government reservations.
"Those who are prepared will not have to leave their homes"
One of the major issues, of course, is water, since a body cannot live without water for more than four or five days. Orsini suggests storing water in glass bottles, adding a drop of bleach to prevent spoiling.
Another tip is to start preparing now, and not at the last minute. He suggests purchasing a little dry food each week.
"The moral obligation," he says, "is to prepare your family, inform your parish and community, and create readiness for the inevitable." Those with access to the Internet can find his other tips for making families Y2K-proof at: http://www.ewtn.com/antonin/y2kcat.htm.
Ready, Set, Go!
In a few weeks and months, the rate of stories on Y2K will accelerate even more, and be increasingly bleaker. Already, the Red Cross is advising people to store up provisions for a minimum of one week, but Orsini predicts that the crash at the turn of the year could ignite a three-month panic that might take a year or more to work out.
On the plus side, he predicts that Y2K will usher in great opportunities for evangelization as the "comfortable" are shaken from their entrenched positions.
This item 807 digitally provided courtesy of CatholicCulture.org
