World Population - 1998
The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) released its annual report on world population trends this past week. UNFPA is a United Nations agency that collects money from member nations and then disburses its funds to foster population control and family planning programs. Under the title information and education UNFPA carries out a strong propaganda effort, usually overemphasizing population growth, misleading people and creating attitude of crisis or panic.
This year's report is more ambivalent. The basic demographic facts as we approach the year 2000 do not support a crisis mentality. As the report tells us, today world population is close to 6 billion people, with a growth rate of 1.6 percent. This is a sharp decline from the 60's when total population was 3 billion, but the growth rate was 2 percent. As we look ahead, the growth rate will decline slightly and then stabilize. The actual increase, now at about 80 million persons per year, will begin to decline, going down to 40 million after the turn of the century. This actual and dramatic decline in the numbers of people added to the world's population—that is, the decline in births—will be accompanied by an unprecedented increase in older persons. According to U.N. estimates, those aged 60 years or older will increase from 10 to 31 percent of the world population between 1995 and 2150. Ultimately we will see a total world population of about II billion around 2200. Some emphasize the growth as threatening, but the truth is that the world can support that and more providing we see ourselves as a global family.
Nonetheless, UNFPA Director Nafis Sadik is reported to have said that present growth rates will lead to more water shortages, famine, proliferation and terrorism—an outrageous and unfounded prediction.
The UNFPA report emphasizes the present number of young people, their needs and their potential. Actually the emphasis is on the assumed need for reproductive health services, namely, abortion, sterilization and contraception. In fact, these young people will need education, health care, family care and support and ultimately, jobs, professions and opportunities to use their talents and abilities. They will also contribute to world development and progress.
The report also discusses the value of children. Recognizing that there is no simple and standard way to measure the value of children to families or societies, it goes on to note that "in purely economic terms, however, children are an expensive investment." I doubt that most people look at children purely in economic terms. Furthermore, children become adults and the investment then begins to pay off in terms of productivity, contributing to the well-being of society and the value of creativity.
The driving force of population growth over the past 50 years was not continually high birth rates but improved health care technologies such as antibiotics, nutritional improvement and vaccines. As a result, morbidity and mortality declined and people lived longer. This is especially so in regard to infant mortality which declined sharply in developed countries and significantly in the developing nations.
Clearly, the demographic challenge of the future is the increase in elderly persons and how to take care of them. (Remember, all of us aged 60 or over are already in this cohort, and those 55 to 60 are fast approaching it.)
William Raspberry, the syndicated columnist, has tried to address the dilemma in some recent columns. Raspberry cites the optimism of one of his colleagues, James Classman, who was "practically ecstatic" over Turkey. Most people see Turkey as economically disorganized, but Classman sees a promising future because of the large cohorts of young people. Turkey is "awash in young people, the greatest natural resource of the 21st century." Contrast this with Europe where birth rates are already consistently below replacement level and the older population is constantly increasing.
French demographer Jean Claude Chesnais reminds us that the decline in world population growth rates, especially in the Third World, has distracted us from the grave problems of Europe (and pretty soon, the U.S.). "We must look beyond simple numbers," says Chesnais, "because you cannot have a successful world without children in it." The same is true of Italy. The pension system is great but the burdens that fall on the young are staggering. Thus, a phenomenally low birth rate and ultimately, no one to pay into the pension plan. And according to Raspberry and his friends, much the same is already happening in the U.S. The present Social Security system simply will not give security to the forthcoming cohorts of older persons (those of us over 55). Some have tried to hedge their bets with IRA's and 401 (k) plans. The recent "downturn" of the stock market places these at serious risk. But the younger workers, raising their families now, and paying higher taxes, don't have enough to save for their futures.
As you read about the World Population Report, remember it isn't just numbers or birth rates, and certainly not the need for more contraception. It is always a matter of values, of solidarity and of hope. And this requires faith in God and His Providence, as well as a firm resolve to obey His laws.
Most Reverend James T. McHugh, Bishop of Camden, September 11, 1998
© Catholic Star Herald
This item 692 digitally provided courtesy of CatholicCulture.org
