Catholic World News News Feature
The new cardinal-electors (analysis) October 21, 2003
The number of cardinals eligible to vote in a papal election now stands at 135-- 15 more than the limit imposed by Pope Paul VI in 1975 and reaffirmed by Pope John Paul II in 1996.
(The cardinal who was elevated in pectore could make the overall voting total 136, if he is under the age of 80. However, he will not be eligible to participate in a papal conclave until he is publically identified by Pope John Paul II. If this identity is still a secret when this Pope dies, his status as cardinal will then lapse.)
Pope John Paul had surpassed the limit on one previous occasion, during his last previous consistory in February 2001, when he brought the number of eligible electors up to the same total: 135. The Pope-- who, as supreme legislator for the Church, sets the rules for a papal conclave-- has the authority to set aside the upper limit of the number of cardinals who are eligible to vote. But by exceeding the limit, the Holy Father has created a potential snag for canon lawyers. The cardinals who will supervise a papal conclave do not have the authority to lay aside rules set by a Roman Pontiff. So if the Pope dies while the number of cardinal-electors remains above 120, the cardinals charged with the organization of the conclave would be bound by the statutory limit. Presumably Pope John Paul has added a codicil to his will, giving those prelates the authority to modify the limit on cardinal-electors.
Moreover, the number of cardinals eligible to vote in a conclave will recline rapidly, as some prelates die and other reach the age of 80, at which point they cease to be eligible voters. Even in the unlikely event that no cardinal-electors die in the coming year, the number of eligible voters will fall to 121 by the end of 2003. Three cardinals will mark their 80th birthdays before the end of this year; ten more in the course of 2004.
The geographical distribution of the College of Cardinals remains essentially unchanged, despite the addition of 30 new members. Europeans remain the largest group among the potential voters, with 66 cardinals, or 49 percent of the total. The contingent from Latin America is next in size, with 24 cardinal-electors or 18 percent of the total. There are 14 from North American and 13 apiece from Africa and Asia-- roughly 10 percent each; and 5 from Oceania, or 4 percent of the eligible voters.
Italy is the country best represented among the cardinal-electors, with 23 prelates, accounting for 17 percent of the total. The power of the Italian cardinals as a voting bloc is weakened, however, by the likelihood that the prelates in Rome would be split among several different papal candidates. The next-largest contingents-- from the US (11 electors), Spain (8), Germany (6), Brazil (6), Poland (5), and France (5)-- are regarded as more likely to throw their support behind a single candidate.
The cardinal-electors now working in the Roman Curia-- 25 of the 135 voting total-- could form a highly influential bloc in a papal conclave. Since they regularly meet with the prelates from all over the world as they come to Rome for ad limina visits, these cardinals are particularly knowledgeable about the challenges facing the Church and the individual prelates working in other countries.
The new cardinals will bring the average age of the electors down slightly-- from 72.5 years to 71. And the number of cardinal-electors over the age of 70 will drop, from 68 percent of the total to 60 percent. In the nine consistories of his pontificate, Pope John Paul II has created 231 cardinals (plus one in pectore ), of whom 130 are now eligible to vote in a conclave. Thus 96 percent of the eligible voters were raised to College of Cardinals by the current Pontiff; the remaining 5 prelates were elevated by Pope Paul VI.
