Catholic World News News Feature

Abortion seen best predictor of breast-cancer rate October 03, 2007

A British statistician has found that abortion rates accurately predict the incidence of breast cancer in several countries.

In a study published in the Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons, Patrick Carroll of London's Pension and Population Research Institute reports that the rate of abortion was the "best predictor of breast cancer" among several included in his study. Fertility rates also proved useful in predicting the incidence of breast cancer.

Carroll showed that countries with higher abortion rates, such as England and Wales, could expect a substantial increase in breast cancer incidence. Where abortion rates were low, for instance in Ireland, a smaller increase was expected. And in countries where a decline in abortion had taken place, such as Denmark and Finland, a decline in breast cancer could be anticipated.

The study used national data from nations that are believed to have "nearly complete abortion counts," Carroll reported. He used the same mathematical model with which, in 1997, he had accurately forecast the incidence of breast cancer in England and Wales from 1998 to 2004. Carroll used national data from nations believed to have "nearly complete abortion counts." Therefore, his study is not affected by recall bias.