Another very predictable 'surprise'
From Dublin comes the news that the crowds at the International Eucharistic Congress (IEC) are greatly exceeding expectations. For some oversubscribed events, organizer have been forced to put up giant TV screens, to relay the speeches to the people unable to squeeze into the assigned sites.
For weeks leading up to this event, Irish commentators have been saying that it would probably be a dud. The Church has taken some serious hits in Ireland during the past few years, morale has been drooping, and the pundits assumed that there would be a painfully low turnout for the IEC. Not so.
It's raining in Dublin now. You'd think that would depress attendance figures, too. Wrong again.
Folks, there's an established pattern here. Whenever there's a major international Catholic event--World Youth Day, the IEC, a papal visit, whatever--the media forecast disappointing crowds. Then, having driven down expectations, reporters are stunned by the size of the crowds. Church officials set an early estimate of attendance, columnists say they're being hopelessly optimistic, and then those early estimates prove low.
By now we should all know what's going to happen. The crowds are always "surprisingly" large. When will we all stop being surprised? As a rule of thumb, always assume that the preliminary attendance estimates are too low. If you're a betting man, take the over.
An appeal from our founder, Dr. Jeffrey Mirus:
Dear reader: If you found the information on this page helpful in your pursuit of a better Catholic life, please support our work with a donation. Your donation will help us reach seven million Truth-seeking readers worldwide this year. Thank you!
Progress toward our September expenses ($15,718 to go):
All comments are moderated. To lighten our editing burden, only current donors are allowed to Sound Off. If you are a donor, log in to see the comment form; otherwise please support our work, and Sound Off!
Posted by: Michael Burton -
Jun. 14, 2012 2:09 PM ET USA
I think you are missing a critical step: After the reporters are personally surprise, they attempt to undermine the reporting of the numbers by citing either the lowest estimate or using the word "hundreds" to describe several thousand people or "a few thousand people" to describe a quarter million.