tick, tick

By Diogenes ( articles ) | Sep 08, 2006

I wish he were wrong, but I fear he's not. Poll-cruncher Dick Morris thinks Hillary has the best shot at getting into the Oval Office next time around. In addition to the traditional, locked-in constituencies (gays, unionized teachers, presidents of Georgetown), Hillary will be able to jack up the turn-out of unmarried women to her advantage.

Half of all women in the United States are single, and they voted for Kerry in 2004 by a margin of 25 points. But their turnout was only 59 percent, about 10 points below married white men or women. Even so, they dramatically increased their share of turnout, to 22 percent (from 19 percent in 2000). They were the only major demographic group to increase their vote share.

If Hillary runs, she will bring out single women in unheard of numbers. Likely, she will increase their turnout by about 6 to 7 million votes.

Those extra votes will be hard to offset. White men and married white women are already pretty well maxed out in their turnout. There were not a lot of Bush voters who stayed home in 2004. And very few Kerry voters will back the Republican in 2008.

Unsettlingly plausible. Plugging her for the nomination in 2004, Morris wrote that Hillary's candidacy would "turn a campaign into a crusade," and that should be equally true for the next presidential election.

On the other hand, Morris has not reckoned with the impact of the USCCB's Voter's Guide for 2008.

God help us all.