Action Alert!

Junk polls and realism, cont.

By Phil Lawler (bio - articles ) | Sep 21, 2004

If you're hoping for a Bush victory in November, don't let yourself get too comfortable with those nationwide preference polls. Again, the nationwide count doesn't matter. What matters is the vote in the Electoral College.

According to the latest Zogby poll of the crucial "battleground states," if the election had been held yesterday, Kerry would have won-- fairly comfortably.

As Zogby sees it, if you leave out the states where the margin is too close to call, Kerry leads the race, by an Electoral College count of 254- 236, with another 48 "votes up for grabs."

Phil Lawler has been a Catholic journalist for more than 30 years. He has edited several Catholic magazines and written eight books. Founder of Catholic World News, he is the news director and lead analyst at See full bio.

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  • Posted by: - Sep. 23, 2004 11:04 AM ET USA

    If anyone's interested, I've found the following website to be fascinating to watch: All polls should be taken with a grain of salt, but this site does a pretty good job of tracking them all as they are released. It's amazing how much things change from one day to the next...

  • Posted by: Brad - Sep. 22, 2004 4:08 PM ET USA

    The electoral college poll that C-SPAN has been showing shows Bush comfortably ahead with over 300 electoral votes. Not sure what source they use but it is much more comforting.