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Junk polls

By Phil Lawler (bio - articles ) | Sep 09, 2004

Pro-life Americans have been mostly buoyed by the results of recent presidential-preference polls, which show Pres. Bush increasing his lead on Sen. Kerry.

Sorry to burst the bubble, but those polls are irrelevant.

It's important to remember that, for all practical purposes, there is not one presidential contest in November, but fifty separate winner-take-all contests. It's entirely possible that Bush could win the overall popular vote, and lose the White House in the Electoral College.

In fact, according to the New York Times and a Zogby poll analysis for the Wall Street Journal, if the election(s) were held today, that's exactly what would happen.

Fortunately the election is not held today, and momentum does count, so the latest poll numbers do mean something. But the poll numbers that really matter are not the national figures, but the numbers from teetering states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida, and Missouri.

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  • Posted by: - Sep. 10, 2004 9:20 PM ET USA

    Good buddy, look beyond polls controlled by America's enemies.

  • Posted by: - Sep. 09, 2004 4:48 PM ET USA

    Not to worry, Phil. The New York Times (especially so) and Zogby are hardly objective sources of presidential political analysis. I believe that both Gallup and Opinion Dynamics have Bush ahead in the state-by-state race.

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